Well that wasn’t such a fun election day. Can we go back to 2008 please? That was more fun. But, as is often the case, things are not as good or bad as you think they are. As noted in this space yesterday, the elections in NJ and VA featured very flawed Democrats who ran less than ideal campaigns. More specifically, if you look at Jon Corzine (NJ), he was a dead duck. This loss should not be pinned on Obama – this was an unpopular guy (who had been unpopular since practically the day he took office. President Obama’s first substantial campaign visit to NJ was in July, when Corzine was down about 8-12 points depending on which poll you look at. So the Obama visits helped close the gap to the final margin of about 4 points. Look, losing NJ hurts, but it’s not like NJ always goes Dem. (remember Whitman and Kean?) Finally, Corzine’s approval rating has been in the 30s for most of his term (that is Bush levels of dislike) including while Dems. elsewhere in the country where enjoying high levels of popularity. It’s no wonder voters wanted someone new in there.
But now, I give you something light and fun. My wife and I will likely be buying a house at some point soon and a requirement for me is a place to have a man den. Here are some ideas – time to figure out what I like best!
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
Ok, with that out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the key races to watch today.
Virginia Governor’s Race: Creigh Deeds (D) vs. Bob McDonnell (R)
It is looking fairly likely that the Republicans will reclaim the Governor’s mansion in Virginia. This hard-fought and very expensive race has been trending McDonnell for the past two months. Looking at polls, if Deeds does in fact lose, he can point to three main factors that cost him this race.
1. The McDonnell campaign was perceived as much more personal. McDonnell was actually on camera in three times as many TV ads as Deeds was and this helped voters to get to know him and learn to trust him.
2. Obama, especially lately, stayed largely out of the race. As a result of that, and the fact that Deeds is not a great campaigner, the Democratic enthusiasm that we have seen in the last few VA elections ended up not materializing. Without that GOTV excitement, it is going to be very hard for Deeds to get the voters he needs to the polls. Those ‘new’ voters who pushed Obama over the top and who have helped Warner and Kaine in the past are likely going to stay home.
3. A Washington Post poll indicates that more than 60% of VA residents think Deeds has run a negative campaign, while only about 35% think McDonnell has. This perception (even though it is wrong) has helped McDonnell to be portrayed as a man of the people and Deeds as a whiny politician. In politics perception is everything and this perception is one factor in costing Deeds the race.
MY ENDORSEMENT: Despite his uphill climb, I am endorsing Creigh Deeds to be the next Governor of Virginia. I appreciate his dedication to creating educational opportunities and his liberal stance on most social issues. McDonnell, quite frankly, scares me because I don’t know who he really is. In a 1989 thesis, McDonnell argued, among other things that “government policy should favor married couples over ‘cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators;'” criticized the 1965 Supreme Court decision which legalized the use of birth control by married couples; and described working women and feminists as “detrimental” to a the family. Since then, he claims his positions have evolved (pointing to the fact that he “worked to include child day care in [1995 welfare reform legislation] so women would have greater freedom to work.” However, he also opposed an effort in 2006 that would expand the state’s nondiscrimination policy to include sexual orientation and, aside from the 1995 bill has done little, if anything, to signal a clear shift in thinking. I can’t support someone who may (and probably does) still believe that discrimination is acceptable.
MY PREDICTION: McDonnell 55-45 win over Deeds.
New Jersey Governor’s Race: Jon Corzine (D) vs. Chris Christie (R) vs Chris Dagget (I)
Well this has been quite the nasty and intrigue-filled race. On the one side, you have a Democratic incumbent – a business man – who has made misstep after misstep (including failing to deliver on promises to ease tax burdens) in the Governor’s mansion and is extremely unpopular in the state. On the other side you have a former US attorney (appointed by George W. Bush) who is trying to make voters think that NJ is the only state having financial difficulties and is attempting to pin the responsibility of those financial struggles of the state on Corzine. And, to complicate matters, you have an independent candidate who is polling better than most independents do in states like NJ (a high of 20%) and who is focusing his campaign on the economic woes of the state but, unlike Christie, offering real solutions. Chris Dagget has shaken up this race to the point where his involvement may well cost Christie the race.
MY ENDORSEMENT: Christie has been long on critique and short on ideas and I am never a fan of that. This is a race that should have been much more lopsided in his favor, but he has failed time and time again to offer the real solutions that voters are demanding. With him out of the way, it comes to down Dagget or Corzine. I don’t agree with much of what has been written about Corzine being a complete failure for NJ. He was Governor in an extremely challenging environment and I applaud his steadfast commitment to public education and his restructuring of the Abbott school funding formulas. In addition, he has been a champion of the environment and has pushed for universal health coverage in his state. However, this missteps are too large to ignore and, with an opponent as bi-partisan (not just in name, but also in action), accomplished and smart as Dagget, I want to suggest my NJ friends cast their votes for the Independent candidate in the race and elect Chris Dagget to be the next Governor of New Jersey. With such a resistant legislature, Corzine may not be the best leader for the state – as a result a new voice may be needed if real progress is to be made. I believe Dagget can be that leader and that new voice. I don’t agree with everything he stands for, but I trust his ability to make the best decisions for the state and reform some of what ails NJ. If elected, I have faith that Governor Corzine will make better decisions for the state than he has in his first term. However, for the reasons discussed above, I am still endorsing Chris Dagget – not because he is an independent, but because he is the best person for the job
MY PREDICTION: This race should have been a landslide win for Chris Christie. However his ‘safe’ campaign, and the presence of Dagget to siphon off some of the anti-Corzine voters, will allow Corzine to keep his job and lead the state for another four years. I predict a final tally of 42-40 in favor of Corzine with Dagget taking around 10% of the vote.
New York 23rd Congressional District: Bill Owens (D) vs. Doug Hoffman (C)
This has been one of the most interesting Congressional races we have seen in a while. The Republican party put up Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican, as their candidate. However, the conservative wing of the party was so opposed to her that many of them rallied around Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate. With so much opposition Scozzafava made the decision, on Saturday, to drop out of the race. Her removal caused the RNC to reverse course and endorse Hoffman, while announcing that Scozzafava was releasing her supporters to vote for Hoffman. However, on Sunday, Dede released a statement, bucking her party, and announcing she was supporting Bill Owens (the Democrat) and suggested her supporters do the same. This has become a clear race between a moderate candidate and an extremely conservative one and it has raised many questions with far-reaching answers. If Hoffman can win, it will embolden conservatives across the country to challenge the moderate wing of their party and pull the party platform to the right. If Owens manages to win (and become the first Democrat to hold this seat in more than 100 years) it will be a confidence-booster for the Democrats and will establish them as the party of the left AND the middle. Either way, the ramifications will be extremely interesting to watch as we approach the mid-term elections.
MY ENDORSEMENT: No surprise that I am going to endorse Bill Owens for this seat. However, I am going to let Dede Scozzafava tell you why. “”I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same,” she said. “In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.”
MY PREDICTION: I have no idea. This race could go either way depending on so many different factors. What will the turn-out be? How will Scozzafava supporters vote? Will they vote? Can Hoffman rally the conservative base around him? Can Owens tap into the moderate bloc and win their confidence? If forced to chose, I think Hoffman will barely win, but I have no faith, whatsoever, in that prediction.
Other races to watch:
Boston Mayor: Thomas Menino (D) vs. Michael Flaherty (D)
The most serious competition Menino has had since becoming Mayor, Flaherty has run a really good campaign. However, Menino is too popular and too good to lose and should win by 20 points. I do want to applaud Flaherty for bringing his primary opponent, Sam Yoon into his campaign – that action demonstrated a real ability to work with people you have disagreements with and made a strong impression.
Maine Votes on Gay Marriage:
Voters will be going to the polls to try to repeal the law passed earlier this year allowing same-sex marriage in Maine. If you live in Maine, please vote against the repeal so freedom of choice can be preserved.
New York Mayor: Michael Bloomberg (I) vs. Bill Thompson (D)
Uhh…like this will be close. Bloomberg by 30. I only put it here as an excuse for me to congratulate the Phillies on winning Game 5 and am hoping that one of Bloomberg’s once he is re-elected will be to watch the Yankees lose.
If you want more on all the races going on today, check out this great site in the New York Times.
REMEMBER TO VOTE TODAY